In recent weeks, the unemployment rate has soared to 14.7 percent, the worst since the Depression era. More than 20 million people lost their jobs in April, with many experts fearing this economic damage is just beginning. Now, business leaders, workers and policymakers are scrambling to adapt to these unprecedented changes to the economy and workplaces.

SHRM has long studied and analyzed workplace trends through cutting edge research. However, the novelty and severity of the changes and challenges engendered by this pandemic demands a timely and tailored approach to reporting the latest economic and workplace developments.

This urgent need for data-based insights into the pandemic’s ever-changing impact is precisely why SHRM and Oxford Economics partnered to create the COVID-19 Business Index. The index, released every two weeks, helps decision-makers from both the public and private sectors track and understand the key changes and trends reshaping the world of work.

The first round, released May 4, examined the workforce changes employers made in response to the pandemic. Notably, it found 32 percent of U.S. employers had furloughed or laid off hourly workers, while 20 percent had furloughed or laid off salaried workers.

The second round, released today, provides an even sharper—and more alarming—picture of this economic pain.

During the pandemic, U.S. workers have lost an estimated $1.3 trillion in income—roughly $8,900 per worker. However, it’s essential to note that job-loss isn’t the sole cause of this lost income. Twenty percent of that $1.3 trillion ($260 billion) represents lost earnings of those who have remained employed and had their hours or salary reduced. In other words, there is more to the economic pain than the eye-popping unemployment figures might suggest.

In addition to calculating lost income, the latest findings also forecast a longer road to recovery. In many places, jobs that have were lost in a matter of weeks will take years to return. Based on the latest COVID-19 Business Index findings, Oxford Economics expects that even by as late as the end of 2022, only 20 percent of large metropolitan areas will have recovered to the employment levels of early 2020.

The latest index shows the damage done by COVID-19 is both deeper and longer lasting than many experts anticipated. The world we had just months ago—of low employment and bullish markets—has vanished and left employers and employees alike stranded in a strange, new normal.

Understanding and mapping this emerging reality is perhaps the most pressing and urgent task before us. In the coming weeks, the COVID-19 Business Index will continue to provide that perspective, based on the latest data, and prepare leaders to weather the storm and lead the recovery to come in its wake.  

SHRM membership gives you access to resources and tools to safeguard your organization during this crisis, and to prepare for the new realities of the workplace. Learn more.

WRITTEN BY 

Alex.Alonso

Alexander Alonso, PhD, SHRM-SCP is the Society for Human Resource Management’s (SHRM’s) Chief Knowledge Officer leading operations for SHRM’s Certified Professional and Senior Certified Professional certifications, research functions, and the SHRM Knowledge Advisor service.   He is responsible for all research activities, including the development of the SHRM Competency Model and SHRM credentials.  

During his career, he has worked with numerous subject matter experts worldwide with the aim of identifying performance standards, developing competency models, designing organizational assessments, and conducting job analyses.   He was also responsible for working on contract task orders involving the development of measurement tools for content areas such as job knowledge (like teacher knowledge of instructional processes) and organizational climates (like organizational climate forecasting in military health care).

Dr. Alonso received his doctorate in Industrial-Organizational Psychology from Florida International University in 2003. His works have been recognized for their contribution to real-world issues.  They include being recognized by the Society for Industrial Organizational Psychology (Division 14 of the APA; SIOP) with the 2007 M. Scott Myers Award for Applied Research in the Workplace for the development of the federal standard for medical team training, TeamSTEPPS; being awarded a 2009 Presidential Citation for Innovative Practice by the American Psychological Association for supporting the development of competency model for team triage in emergency medicine; and receiving the 2013 SIOP Distinguished Early Career Contributions for Practice Award.  

Throughout his career, he has published works in peer-reviewed journals such as Industrial and Organizational Psychology: Perspectives on Science and Practice, Journal of Applied Psychology, International Journal of Selection and Assessment, People and Strategy, Personality and Individual Differences, Quality and Safety in Health Care, and Human Resources Management Review.  He has also authored several chapters on community-based change initiatives in workforce readiness, as well as co-authoring Defining HR Success: A Guide to the SHRM Competency Model in Practice.

Dr. Alonso also served as a columnist analyzing major trends in the workforce for The Industrial Psychologist and HR Magazine. In addition, he has served on several professional society boards including the SIOP and the Personnel Testing Council of Metropolitan Washington.